Weekly update: Fresh data, big earnings, and the week ahead

With Big Tech earnings about to take center stage and the Federal Reserve meeting on deck, investors head into the week ahead with a   sense of cautious optimism — watching closely but with room for confidence. Let’s look at the most important trends at work:

Stock Index Performance

• The S&P 500   added   1.92%. 
• The Nasdaq 100   gained   1.76%. 
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the pack,   climbing   2.20%.

We’ve Got Data

Despite fewer releases due to the government shutdown, several key reports offered insight:

• Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September   rose 0.3%   month-over-month, with year-over-year inflation at 3.0%. Core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, both slightly below forecasts. This softer print reinforced the view that inflation pressures continue to cool.
• October’s   Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)   improved slightly to 52.2, and Services PMI rose one point to 55.2, signaling steady expansion in business activity.

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment in October fell to   53.6 from 55.1 , highlighting consumer unease   over job security and high prices​.
• Existing Home Sales increased to 4.06 million annualized units, above consensus estimates of 3.95 million, pointing to housing resilience despite high mortgage rates.
• Meanwhile, according to   FactSet , third-quarter earnings season is off to a strong start: 29% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with 87% beating earnings per share (EPS) estimates — the strongest beat rate since Q2 2021 and well ahead of long-term averages.

These   data points   together painted the picture of an economy cooling modestly yet retaining underlying strength — strong enough to sustain consumer spending and hiring but weak enough to justify Fed easing.  

The Week Ahead  

• Markets are focused on this week’s Fed meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to deliver a second straight quarter-point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75-4.00%. With inflation moderating and the labor market showing signs of fatigue, investors are betting the Fed will lean toward support rather than restraint.

• On the earnings front, five of the “Magnificent Seven” will report, representing nearly a quarter of the S&P 500’s market cap. Analysts expect close attention on Microsoft’s AI cloud growth, Apple’s iPhone 17 demand, and Amazon’s logistics margins, all seen as key forces behind this year’s market momentum.

While Washington’s gridlock and Fed speculation dominate today’s headlines, long-term investing allows us to stay focused on the big picture. With that said, if you have questions or simply want to talk through what’s happening, I’m here — ready to provide perspective, reassurance, and a steady partner at your side as we move forward together.